Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.164365 0.184416 0.206057 0.231168 0.259528 0.290591 0.327231
2025-11-30 0.134228 0.160999 0.191970 0.230520 0.277322 0.332433 0.402447
2025-12-07 0.106747 0.135809 0.171562 0.218940 0.280322 0.357491 0.462394
2025-12-14 0.088053 0.118237 0.157528 0.212701 0.288636 0.390138 0.537214
2025-12-21 0.073749 0.104066 0.145637 0.207234 0.296929 0.423923 0.619379
2025-12-28 0.065066 0.096181 0.140982 0.210824 0.318123 0.478619 0.740393
2026-01-04 0.056360 0.086931 0.132971 0.208188 0.329633 0.520836 0.850144
2026-01-11 0.049967 0.080209 0.127715 0.208843 0.346163 0.573189 0.985176
2026-01-18 0.045155 0.075262 0.124480 0.212142 0.367352 0.636256 1.149444
2026-01-25 0.039019 0.067269 0.115138 0.203700 0.367044 0.662386 1.252657
2026-02-01 0.033607 0.059780 0.105629 0.193511 0.361915 0.678856 1.340497
2026-02-08 0.029810 0.054643 0.099564 0.188669 0.365867 0.712645 1.468126
2026-02-15 0.026369 0.049813 0.093606 0.183524 0.369166 0.747155 1.607223
2026-02-22 0.024424 0.047561 0.092207 0.187141 0.390761 0.822486 1.849676
2026-03-01 0.021630 0.043285 0.086316 0.180758 0.390464 0.851809 1.995290
2026-03-08 0.019536 0.040152 0.082309 0.177755 0.397053 0.897435 2.189096
2026-03-15 0.017700 0.037318 0.078551 0.174736 0.403126 0.942986 2.392659
2026-03-22 0.016676 0.036081 0.078016 0.178863 0.426511 1.033468 2.730926
2026-03-29 0.015330 0.033963 0.075279 0.177465 0.436336 1.092495 2.998487
2026-04-05 0.014307 0.032448 0.073703 0.178620 0.452761 1.171321 3.339360
2026-04-12 0.013519 0.031377 0.073015 0.181865 0.475163 1.270057 3.761308
2026-04-19 0.012192 0.028868 0.068603 0.175002 0.469490 1.291300 3.954394
2026-04-26 0.010916 0.026335 0.063834 0.166537 0.458087 1.294541 4.092480